Svitlana Braichenko

The role of balancing selection is a long-standing evolutionary puzzle. Balancing selection is a crucial evolutionary process that maintains genetic variation (polymorphism) over extended periods of time; however, detecting it poses a significant challenge. Building upon the Polymorphism-aware phylogenetic Models (PoMos) framework rooted in the Moran model, we introduce a PoMoBalance model. This novel approach is designed to disentangle the interplay of mutation, genetic drift, and directional selection (GC-biased gene conversion), along with the previously unexplored balancing selection pressures on ultra-long timescales comparable with species divergence times by analyzing multi-individual genomic and phylogenetic divergence data. Implemented in the open-source RevBayes Bayesian framework, PoMoBalance offers a versatile tool for inferring phylogenetic trees as well as quantifying various selective pressures. The novel aspect of our approach in studying balancing selection lies in polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models’ ability to account for ancestral polymorphisms and incorporate parameters that measure frequency-dependent selection, allowing us to determine the strength of the effect and exact frequencies under selection. We implemented validation tests and assessed the model on the data simulated with SLiM and a custom Moran model simulator. Real sequence analysis of Drosophila populations reveals insights into the evolutionary dynamics of regions subject to frequency-dependent balancing selection, particularly in the context of sex-limited color dimorphism in Drosophila erecta.

Biochemical reactions inside living cells often occur in the presence of crowders - molecules that do not participate in the reactions but influence the reaction rates through excluded volume effects. However the standard approach to modelling stochastic intracellular reaction kinetics is based on the chemical master equation (CME) whose propensities are derived assuming no crowding effects. Here, we propose a machine learning strategy based on Bayesian Optimisation utilising synthetic data obtained from spatial cellular automata (CA) simulations (that explicitly model volume-exclusion effects) to learn effective propensity functions for CMEs. The predictions from a small CA training data set can then be extended to the whole range of parameter space describing physiologically relevant levels of crowding by means of Gaussian Process regression. We demonstrate the method on an enzyme-catalyzed reaction and a genetic feedback loop, showing good agreement between the time-dependent distributions of molecule numbers predicted by the effective CME and CA simulations.

Two-state models (telegraph-like models) have a successful history of predicting distributions of cellular and nascent mRNA numbers that can well fit experimental data. These models exclude key rate limiting steps, and hence it is unclear why they are able to accurately predict the number distributions. To answer this question, here we compare these models to a novel stochastic mechanistic model of transcription in mammalian cells that presents a unified description of transcriptional factor, polymerase and mature mRNA dynamics. We show that there is a large region of parameter space where the first, second and third moments of the distributions of the waiting times between two consecutively produced transcripts (nascent or mature) of two-state and mechanistic models exactly match. In this region: (i) one can uniquely express the two-state model parameters in terms of those of the mechanistic model, (ii) the models are practically indistinguishable by comparison of their transcript numbers distributions, and (iii) they are distinguishable from the shape of their waiting time distributions. Our results clarify the relationship between different gene expression models and identify a means to select between them from experimental data.

Clusters of IP3 receptor channels in the membranes of the endoplasmic reticulum of many nonexcitable cells release calcium ions in a cooperative manner giving rise to dynamical patterns such as Ca2+ puffs, waves, and oscillations that occur on multiple spatial and temporal scales. We introduce a minimal yet descriptive reaction-diffusion model of IP3 receptors for a saturating concentration of IP3 using a principled reduction of a detailed Markov chain description of individual channels. A dynamical systems analysis reveals the possibility of excitable, bistable, and oscillatory dynamics of this model that correspond to three types of observed patterns of calcium release: puffs, waves, and oscillations, respectively. We explain the emergence of these patterns via a bifurcation analysis of a coupled two-cluster model, compute the phase diagram, and quantify the speed of the waves and period of oscillations in terms of system parameters. We connect the termination of large-scale Ca2+ release events to IP3 unbinding or stochasticity.